研究员：张继强S0570518110002

　　核心观点

　　核心观点

　　到2018年末，“两票制”等重要医药流通行业政策基本落地，从数据看2018年也是行业内集中的并购整合期。2018年行业主体整体盈利波动不大，下游医院客户和应收款项资质整体较好，部分民企营运效率和自由现金流有所改善。虽然整体债务负担仍较重，但是主体的流动性压力更多来自业务盈利偏弱以及扩张期的资金链压力，建议更多关注流通行业资源向龙头整合集中的中长期趋势、信贷和一级发行边际改善、银行系统认可度的提升，可考虑适当下沉资质，寻求中短久期确定性相对较高的信用债预期差机会。

　　行业政策调整大范围落地，行业内整合达到峰值

　　2017、2018年，包括“两票制”、取消药品加成、处方外流、“4+7”带量采购等重要医药流通行业政策发布或落地，下游医药盈利和现金流压力增大并不可避免向中游转移。目前行业呈“3+N”竞争格局，集中度仍有提升空间，行业内整合在2018年达到峰值。

　　关注高附加值业务对总体盈利的拉动作用及商誉减值风险

　　单纯药品批发流通技术含量低、壁垒弱、受上下游挤压压力大，盈利能力一般较弱，对于有制药、药品零售、器械配送等毛利率相对更高业务的发展主体，其业务布局相对更有竞争力，总体毛利率将受到一定拉动。此外，民企业务区域分布相对集中，一定程度反映企业在该地区有更强的市场竞争力。2018年发债主体盈利能力整体变动不大，但部分主体商誉规模偏大而减值计提有限，后续仍需关注商誉减值风险。

　　部分民企净营业周期缩短，自由现金流有所改善

　　医药流通主体客户以医院为主，应收账款账期较短、资质尚可。2018年来部分民企净营业周期缩短，反映在加快应收款项周转、加快存货周转、拉长应付款项周期某些方面有所改善。区域性药品批发国企对域内下游客户话语权相对较强，而药品零售企业对上游供应商的话语权相对更强。现金流方面，行业内主体投资活动现金流出普遍扩大，但是民企经营和自由现金流多有改善，可能有主动加快资金回笼的原因。

　　整体偿债能力仍偏弱，关注供应链金融应用对资产的盘活帮助

　　大部分医药流通发债主体负债率偏高，短期流动性储备有限，且由于业务本身盈利能力偏弱，成本端压力上行，部分民营批发企业发债指标有小幅弱化，债务长期周转方面普遍存在压力。近期部分主体与银行合作开展供应链金融业务合作已有一定成果，未来若继续落地推广有望较大程度改善供应链占款，并降低民企综合融资成本。

　　建议关注行业整合及融资环境边际改善，适当下沉资质寻找机会

　　医药流通行业下游客户以大型医院为主，应收账款资质整体较好，所以业内主体的流动性压力更多是来自流通业务本身较弱的盈利能力以及扩张期普遍存在的产业链资金占用压力，近期主体营运效率和经营获现有所改善，伴随政策落地后续并购投资支出动力也有望减弱。目前业内主体债务负担仍较重，且市场对民企认可度较低，建议更多关注医药流通行业资源向龙头整合集中的中长期趋势、信贷和一级发行边际改善、银行系统认可度的提升，可考虑适当下沉资质寻求中短久期确定性相对较高的信用债预期差机会。

　　风险提示：药品招标价格大幅下降风险；融资成本上行风险。

　　Look for expectation gap-related opportunities among credit bonds

　　Important pharma distribution policies, such as the two-invoice system had been enacted as of end-2018. With plenty of M&As in 2018, overall profitability of the industry stayed stable on good qualifications of downstream clients, ie, hospitals, and improved efficiency and free cash flow of some private firms. Despite the still heavy debt burden, the liquidity pressure of debt issuers mainly comes from poor profitability and capital chain pressure for expansion. We suggest paying attention to the mid- and long-term trends of resources swarming into industry leaders, marginal improvement of credit and primary offering, and higher recognition from banks. Investors may consider higher credit risk exposure and watch out for expectation gap-related opportunities among mid- and short-term credit bonds.

　　Industry consolidation peaked amid policy adjustments

　　With the adoption of key policies in 2017 and 2018, such as the two-invoice system, end of markups on drugs, greater access to prescription drugs, and “4+7” centralized purchase, downstream profitability and cash flow pressures are growing and inevitably spilling over to midstream. The industry now shows a “3+N” competition pattern, and still has room for greater concentration, though industry consolidation peaked in 2018.

　　Attention to high value-added business and goodwill impairment risk

　　Pure pharma distributors have weak profitability due to low entry threshold and upstream and downstream squeezing. In contrast, debt issuers engaging in businesses with higher gross margins, such as drug manufacturing, retail and medical equipment distribution are more competitive and have better profitability. Private distributors are also more competitive within their region due to geographically concentrated operations. Overall profitability of debt issuers changed slightly in 2018, but goodwill impairment risk of some issuers requires attention given their high goodwill and limited impairment write-down.

　　Shorter net operating cycle and improved free cash flow of private firms

　　The main clients of pharma distributors are hospitals, which generally have good qualifications and feature relatively short receivables collection period. In 2018, some private firms had a shorter net operating cycle, as reflected in accelerated receivables and inventory turnover and longer payables cycle. Regional state-run wholesalers have a big say over downstream clients, so do drug retailers over upstream suppliers. Debt issuers generally saw an increase in cash outflows, but operating and free cash flow of private firms largely improved, probably helped by their faster pace to withdraw funds.

　　Financial solvency still poor; supply chain finance to give a boost

　　Most debt issuers have high gearing ratios and limited short-term liquidity. Some private wholesalers see declines in debt issuance indicators and face pressure in debt turnover due to weak profitability and rising costs. Cooperation between some debt issuers and banks in supply chain finance has made progress, and is expected to enhance their capacity to use funds from supply chain and reduce financing costs of private firms.

　　Seek opportunities with higher risk exposure

　　As downstream clients of the pharma distribution sector are mostly large hospitals featuring shorter receivables collection period, liquidity pressure of debt issuers mainly stems from weak profitability of the pharma distribution business and prevalent funding pressure at expansion stage. Their efficiency and operation have improved lately, and momentum of spending on M&A and investment may be weakening. Given the still heavy debt burden of issuers and low market recognition of private firms, we suggest paying attention to the mid- and long-term trends of resources swarming into leading enterprises, marginal improvement of credit and primary offering, and higher recognition from banks. Investors may consider taking higher credit risk exposure and seek expectation gap-related opportunities among mid- and short-term credit bonds.

　　Risks: slump in drug bidding prices; and upside risk of financing costs.